Premier League coaching hot seat index: Who will be fired?

I don't think you hire a 31-year-old manager unless you're planning on being patient with him, but as measured by the metrics that Brighton's leadership cares about, this is their worst team since 2019-20. For a club that finally made a ton of big bets in the transfer market this summer, I wonder how long they'll be OK with these mediocre performances.

Getting hot: The only reason these seats aren't the hottest is because a couple other guys have done even worse

7. Eddie Howe, Newcastle United

I expected a bounceback year on Tyneside. Newcastle were fantastic two seasons ago, and then really seemed to fall apart last year under the weight of the extra Champions League matches. Despite that, their plus-23 goal differential was easily the fourth-best mark in the league. Without those extra European matches and with the likelihood that their point total would better align with their performances, it seemed an easy bet that the club with the richest owners in professional sports might do better this season.

Instead, they've been even worse? They've allowed as many goals as they've conceded this season, and their adjusted goal rating is pretty much exactly league-average. Plus, Eddie Howe and sporting director Paul Mitchell have been indirectly criticizing each other through the media. even with the win over Arsenal this past weekend, it's really starting to feel like Howe won't be long for the job.

6. Sean Dyche, Everton

Last year, I thought Everton were a genuinely average-ish team that fooled everyone into thinking they were bad partially because of some finishing variance but mostly because the league docked them six points. This season, they've genuinely been bad, but they're five clear of the relegation zone, and there are at least four teams I'd say are definitely worse than them.

Overall, Dyche has still done a great job for a club that hasn't really had much of an ability to spend and improve the roster while he's been manager. With new owners likely on the way and potentially some reinforcements arriving in January, it wouldn't surprise me to see Everton rise up the table. But "we're the 17th-best team in the league and we could improve!" still isn't a great argument for job security.

5. Julen Lopetegui, West Ham United

They spent a ton of money over the summer ... and they stink. At the same time, there are many worse teams in the league, and West Ham really did seem to recruit the exact players that Lopetegui wanted, so perhaps he'll get some more leeway than the average manager.

The longer-term future is not looking great either. Despite all the new players they brought in, West Ham are the second-oldest team in the league this year.

4. Oliver Glasner, Crystal Palace

I wonder if he'll be a victim of his own expectations. Here's how the table looked after he was hired by Palace last February:

And here's how it looks this season:

The uptick last year created expectations that Palace might challenge for Europe ... and now they're in a relegation battle.

But if we look at all Premier League games since Glasner was hired, Palace have a plus-10 goal difference and their adjusted goal rating is seventh-best behind the top three, Chelsea, Tottenham, and Newcastle. I'd be inclined to look at the whole sample instead of just this season -- even though personnel changed over the summer.

But when a team that didn't expect to be in the relegation race enters the relegation race, it's rare that their manager lasts long.

3. Steve Cooper, Leicester City

They have the third-worst xG differential in the league after Ipswich and Southampton. The five-point gap from them to 18th should buy Cooper some breathing room, but there's pretty much nothing here that makes me think Leicester are safe. They could easily win the fewest points of any team over the final 31 matches, and I don't think anyone would be surprised.

On fire: A matter of when, not if

2. Russell Martin, Southampton

Welcome to this season's version of last season's Burnley.

Southampton are trying to play like Manchester City. Only City have played a lower percentage of their passes forward: 28.2% for Southampton, 23.5% for City. And only City are moving the ball more slowly up the field: 1.02 meters per second for Southampton, 0.94 m/s for City.

The big difference, of course, is that Manchester City are in second place, while Southampton are second from bottom.

Despite controlling 54.9% of the possession in their matches -- fifth-most in the league -- Martin's team have attempted the second-fewest shots and allowed the second most. They're generating nothing from all that possession and then rolling out a red carpet every time they lose the ball. It's simply not working, at all.

With all of the low cost bets they've made on young players from across the world, Southampton are clearly operating on a timeline beyond just this season. There are smart people at this club, so I don't think they're just letting Martin do his thing so he hopefully gets hired by Bayern Munich next summer after Southampton get relegated. There has to be some kind of desire throughout the club to play a more expansive, dominant possession-style.

Perhaps this is all part of some grand plan where the team gets relegated while sticking to its guns, then dominates the Championship next season with their talent and parachute-payment advantage, and then comes back stronger in two years, ready to do it all again. If not, it's hard to see Martin lasting for much longer. He's not going to change, and that means that Southampton are going to continue to lose.

1. Gary O'Neil, Wolverhampton Wanderers

O'Neil was put in a really tough situation.

In the micro sense: Lopetegui walked away from the Wolves job right before last season started, so O'Neil had to manage the entire season without getting a preseason with his players. And in the macro sense: It's never really clear what Wolves are trying to achieve in a given season. Are they just a weigh-station for players represented by a certain super-agent, or are they actually trying to win soccer games? And even if it's the former, they're no longer scooping up Jorge Mendes's star prospects like Rúben Neves and Diogo Jota.

That said, this team has been awful. They only have three points, one of which came from a freakish situation where 2-1 leaders Brighton somehow turned a 4-on-1 counter in injury time ... into a 2-2 draw:

The only positive for O'Neil, at this point, is that the schedule has been rough. Wolves have played six of the top seven teams in adjusted goal rating. With his team in last place and a home game against 19th-place Southampton coming up, O'Neil's job -- and maybe Wolverhampton's season -- is likely on the line.